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Augur / US Dollar Chart, REP/USD ()
Augur is a decentralized platform for creating prediction markets. Technically speaking, it is a decentralized oracle that operates on the Ethereum blockchain. It was among the first applications and became the most complex one on Ethereum. The operating principle of the platform is predicting an outcome of upcoming events compiled by collective intelligence. The wisdom of the crowd is often more precise than the opinions of individual analysts and forecasters.
Augur is designed for investors and fundamental traders, betting devotees, sports event fans, and individuals interested in politics. The initial aim was to predict cryptocurrency price changes and their listing and delisting on crypto exchanges. However, users’ imagination was never restricted, which led to betting on any expected events.
Augur project history
Establishment: August 2014, San Francisco, CA (USA).
Founders: engineer and biophysicist Jack Peterson and developer Joseph Krug.
Previous experience: Mr Peterson worked on cryptocurrency startup Dyffy, while Mr Krug developed his own blockchain applications.
Assistants: Stephanie Alexander, Austin K. Williams, Micah Zoltu — co-authors of white paper; Jeremy Gardner — co-developer of the platform and promoter.
Advisers: Ron Bernstein, Vitalik Buterin, Joe Costello.
First organisation: Forecast Foundation; 2014, Oregon (USA).
Second organisation: Forecast Foundation OU; 2015, Tallinn (Estonia).
Alpha version launch: June 2015.
Beta version release: March 2016.
Final release v1: July 2018.
Investment in the project
- Early 2015: $600 thousand in angel investment from Joe Costello.
- August–October 2015: $5.3 million resulted from a token sale.
- June 2016: venture funding from KR1.
Augur cryptocurrency attributes
Markets on Augur are based on the possible outcome of certain events. Every market has life cycles: creation, trading, reporting, and settlement. Platform users can play either one or multiple roles: market creator, reporter, share trader, and bettor.
Who needs REP and why
Internal currency is called the reputation token (here originates ticker REP). The ERC-20 standard token is useful only for market creators and reporters.
Any user can create a market dedicated to a specific outcome of an upcoming event. To do it, they need to set up completion time of the event, assign a reporter, choose resolution sources, and place two bonds:
- A validity bond in the form of ETH, the amount of which is automatically calculated according to a formula. A smart contract will return it regardless of the outcome besides cases when the market is deemed invalid.
- Creator bond is a fraction in the form of gas (Ethereum) and a part consisting of REP, which is also calculated by the formula. The bond is returned if the designated reporter informs about the matching up of the outcome within 24 hours. If they run out of time, the creator bond is transferred to the first public reporter who provided a valid report.
Soon DAI stablecoin will be available as a guarantee of validity and an alternative or even a replacement for ETH. Then, gas will not be required as an inactivity bond but REP will still be needed.
The benefit of the market creator is that they receive a trading commission, which they set. In order to attract participants, they must pick up an interesting event, place a high bet on the outcome they need and a low commission.
How reporters profit
Any reputation token holder can become a reporter. They will need REP for a bond and to purchase participation tokens. This position involves reporting for markets the user participates in as a designated or public reporter. They will also sometimes have to dispute the preliminary outcome in the reports of other reporters if they are false. Thus, a consensus is reached in the oracle, and confidence in the wisdom of the crowd arises.
A designated reporter receives a reward for their work in proportion to the tokens held in the bond. It is paid only in ETH because it originates from the trading commission. The platform gives REP tokens to a public reporter sourced by the creator bond taken from the market creator.
The reporter cannot be mistaken in the information about the outcome of the events, otherwise, they will lose their reputation (in both senses) and their REP will be distributed proportionally to other reporters. Such ways of profiting are a bit like staking in DPoS, only you need to make an effort and not just keep the wallet active.
Who can get by without REP
The subject of the bidding are shares in opposite pools with bets on different event outcomes. They can be bought and sold as soon as the market creator issues complete sets of shares. There is even an order book for trading, so the trading interface resembles a stock exchange. The share price rises as the event approaches, as does the confidence in one of two outcomes.
To buy shares, you do not need REP — everything is done with ETH (Augur operates on Ethereum). Shares are sold for ETH as well. Soon, an alternative will be added in the form of stablecoin DAI when v2 is released (in June 2020).
Traders profit from reselling shares. Bettors buy shares in order to keep them until a victorious end and receive a win in the form of bets made by those who bet on the opposite outcome. There is no class separation between the trader and the bettor, so each of them can change their role. They also have no obligations to the platform and other users.
Outside of Augur, on the entire crypto market, only REP is traded, classified as a utility token of the ERC-20 standard. Participation tokens and shares are intended for internal use. Technically, these are tokens of the ERC-777 standard.
Augur token sale and REP distribution
Augur crowdsale was conducted from 17 August to 1 October 2015. It is considered to be a token sale but not ICO because developers did not plan on creating their own blockchain with coins.
The team issued 11 million REP and limited the emission to this amount. During the token sale, they were distributed as follows:
|Token recipients||Amount of REP||Share of the total issue|
|Private investors in the token sale||8,800,000||80%|
|Reserve for commission (to Forecast Foundation)||440,000||4%|
The assigned cost of REP was $0.6020, with decreasing discounts. Tokens were sold for bitcoins and ethers, not for US dollars. The raising of funds in cryptocurrencies was 19,053 BTC and 1,176,816 ETH. If the number of tokens sold is considered at a cost of $0.6020, then the fiat equivalent was $5,297,600.
Augur price dynamics
The token was listed on exchanges on 27 October 2015 at a price of 1.47 USD — an all-time low. Patient participants of the token sale who held REP until 25 December got a chance to sell them for 2.52 USD — this was a high of 2015. They would have received a ROI of 318.6% (or 3.19x) on the initial investment.
OHLC prices of 2016:
- open — 2.17 USD;
- low — 1.93 USD (15 January);
- high — 18.36 USD (3 October);
- close — 3.77 USD.
Our Augur chart has a weird 101-day straight line. On 13 May 2016 the price seemed to have stopped at 6.60 USD, and only on 22 August continued to move, rising immediately to 9.68 USD.
OHLC prices of 2017:
- open — 4.00 USD;
- low — 3.78 USD (11 January);
- all-time high — 108.47 USD (19 December);
- close — 70.07 USD.
OHLC prices of 2018:
- open — 74.48 USD;
- high — 106.15 USD (13 January);
- low — 5.60 USD (15 December);
- close — 7.82 USD.
REP price change in 2019
Let’s list only strong up- and downtrends with price extremes, as well as the high and low of 2019:
- 📈 Rise from 13 to 20 January: 8.19 USD ⤴ 18.05 USD.
- 📉 Fall from 21 to 28 January: 16.85 USD ⤵ 11.34 USD.
- 📈 Rise from 4 March to 8 April: 12.29 USD ⤴ 22.33 USD.
- 📈 Rise from 9 to 15 May: 19.03 USD ⤴ 24.08 USD — a high of the year.
- 📉 Fall from 19 May to 29 August: 22.82 USD ⤵ 8.15 USD.
- 📈 Rise from 24 October to 4 November: 7.65 USD ⤴ 12.15 USD.
And the token set a year’s low during a flat period on 23 October, at the mark of 7.34 USD.
Augur predictions for 2020 and prospects
Due to the fact that the token operates on the Ethereum blockchain, REP often correlates with ETH. In addition, ether is still required for the bond when creating a market and for trading shares. It also pays part of the commission after closing the market contract. This correlation may weaken when developers integrate DAI that is pegged to the US dollar.
From 1 January to 12 February 2020, the REP price increased in parallel with the ETH price — from 8.76 to 17.47 US dollars, which is still considered year’s high. The increase was 99.4% (ETH’s increase was 102.9%). However, in this period, there was a daily take-off on 14-15 January — from 10.61 to 17.20 US dollars. After that, there was a correction, and then the uptrend continued.
On 13 February, a downtrend began, and on 12 March there was a collapse due to the crisis — this was the case for the entire crypto market. REP has fallen in price to 6.65 US dollars, which is still considered year’s low. On 26 March, the price already crossed the threshold of 10 US dollars but went flat. Recovery continued from 24 April, and on 31 May, the price reached 13.33 US dollars.
- 21 April 2015: the first test smart contract on Ethereum.
- 17 June 2015: alpha version launch.
- 14 March 2016: beta version release.
- 4 October 2016: the creation of the main smart contract written in the Serpent language.
- 24 July 2017: identification of a vulnerability in the Serpent compiler by Zeppelin auditors.
- 28 July 2017: the creation of the new main smart contract written in Solidity and token migration.
- 30 October 2017: audit of the Solidity compiler by Coinspect.
- 12 March 2018: core audit by Zeppelin specialists.
- 5 April 2018: start of the Bug Bounty program with rewards varying from $500 to $25,000.
- 22 June 2018: start of the Bug Bounty program on HackerOne with rewards varying from $100 to $30,000.
- 9 July 2018: v1 release; a new smart contract and token migration.
- 1 November 2019: white paper update.
- June 2020: v2 release with an integration of the DAI stablecoin and protocol 0x; a new smart contract with another migration.
An upcoming event should affect the Augur price. Growth is expected in the first half of June.